Former President Barack Obama and President Donald Trump are putting their political influence on the line in three closely watched races that could shape the 2026 midterm elections — and offer an early glimpse into where voters stand heading into the 2028 presidential election.
The contests could help determine control of Congress while providing an early measure of how much influence both leaders still hold within their respective parties.
While Trump has endorsed hundreds of Republican candidates this election cycle, Obama has taken a far more selective approach. As of late July, the former president has endorsed candidates in just three races — all of which now feature opposing endorsements from Trump.
Political observers say the contests will test not only the candidates themselves, but also whether either president can still energize voters in competitive statewide races.
Iowa: Can Democrats Compete In A State That Shifted To Trump?
Obama has endorsed Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek in Iowa's open U.S. Senate race, while Trump is backing Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson.
The seat is open following Sen. Joni Ernst's decision not to seek reelection, creating one of Democrats' biggest opportunities to compete statewide in Iowa in years.
The race is also being closely watched because Iowa has undergone one of the country's most dramatic political shifts over the past decade. Obama carried the state in both 2008 and 2012, but Republicans have won Iowa in each of the past three presidential elections.
Recent polling suggests the race could be competitive despite the state's Republican lean, making it an early test of whether Democrats can regain ground with Midwestern voters.
Texas Senate: Democrats See An Opening
Perhaps the highest-profile matchup is unfolding in Texas, where Obama has endorsed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the U.S. Senate race while Trump is backing Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Democrats have spent years trying to make Texas competitive at the statewide level but have repeatedly fallen short. This year, some party leaders believe economic concerns and shifting political dynamics could narrow the gap.
Public polling has shown a closely contested race, though most major election forecasters continue to rate Republicans as having the advantage.
Texas Governor: Can Abbott Hold Off Democrats?
Obama has also endorsed Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa in the race for Texas governor against incumbent Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, who has Trump's endorsement.
Unlike the Senate contest, Abbott enters the campaign with a clearer advantage. Still, Democrats see the race as another opportunity to test whether continued population growth in urban areas and changing demographics can make statewide elections more competitive.
Why These Endorsements Matter
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, told Newsweek that endorsements from nationally recognized political figures often serve as shortcuts for voters who may not closely follow individual campaigns.
For Trump, endorsements can help motivate Republican voters in an election where he is not on the ballot. Obama, meanwhile, could energize Democratic voters who continue to view him favorably and may pay closer attention when he chooses to weigh in.
With months remaining before Election Day, both men are expected to continue making endorsements in key races across the country.
Whether those endorsements translate into victories could provide one of the clearest early indicators of each leader's political influence heading into the next presidential election cycle.
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