With record early voting turnout and Election Day tomorrow (November 3), political analysts everywhere are monitoring poll data and watching these specific states and some counties to get more insight into a potential win either way.
A key state in this election, Arizona's population demographics are changing rapidly. Maricopa County, the county seat of Phoenix, represents 60% of Arizona’s votes and is one of the fastest growing suburbs in the country. Bill Clinton is the last Democratic nominee to win this state back in 1996. Donald Trump won it in 2016 by just 91,000 votes, according to a CNN report. Current poll data show a narrow lead in Joe Biden’s favor.
The state will maintain its infamous swing state status in presidential election. This year, President Trump changed his registration and will vote as a Florida resident instead of in New York as he did last election. In 2016, Trump carried the state by a narrow 113,000 vote margin, gaining support from women and voters over the age of 65. Suburbs like St. Petersburg and Orlando will be closely monitored in the state in addition to communities in northern regions.
A new swing state contender in the 2020 presidential election, Democrats are closely watching Black voter turnout in the suburbs of Atlanta that they won in the last election. In 2016, Trump ultimately carried the state because of wide margins in smaller, rural counties. The mid-term election of 2018 evidenced a growing Democratic force that changed the state from red to purple. Both campaigns have made numerous stops in the state within the last weeks leading up Election Day.
The state gave Democrats victories in just five out of 99 counties in the 2016 election. This election, Joe Biden has garnered support among white voters, who gave Trump victory in the state over Hillary Clinton by wide margins. Being watched now are Iowa’s “pivot counties” which delivered victories for Democrats twice for Barack Obama and then flipped to support Republicans.
The state is essential for Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign. In 2016, Clinton carried Charlotte and Raleigh but did not clench the state. Record Black turnout for Barack Obama is attributed to his narrow win in 2008. This year, analysts are watching the Research Triangle area of Raleigh, Durham and Chapel Hill, another fast-growing suburb in the country. Winston-Salem and Charlotte are also being monitored as suburban support will most likely be the force carrying Joe Biden if he wins the state.
This state has been the key to every Republican presidential win. In 2016, support for President Trump in small, rural counties in the southern region of the state created wide margins and ultimately allowed him to carry it. Democrats are relying on large voter turnout in cities and their neighboring suburbs. Stark County, Ohio is a “pivot county” that Joe Biden visited immediately following the first presidential debate and will need to claim victory in the state.
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